Current Projects

  • The Effects of Information Gaps in Central Bank Communications.

    This paper shows that `information gaps' about the likely path of future interest rates between the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and public speeches by the Chair and Vice Chair account for fluctuations in bond markets and the macroeconomy. I estimate a relationship between the text of public speeches and the high-frequency change in financial market expectations of future interest rates around these speeches. I measure information gaps as the differential information about the likely path of future interest rates between the public speeches and the private FOMC meeting minutes. In an event study, I show that these information gaps account for 11\% of the variation in surprises in financial market expectations of future interest rates, which has a persistent effect along the yield curve. Using a structural vector autoregression identified with external instruments, I find that information gap surprises have persistent macroeconomic effects. I explain my results through a model in which central bank communications are inaccurate signals of their reaction function and the real rate of interest.

  • Embracing the Future: Tense Patterns and Forward-Looking Central Bank Communications (with Andrea Guerrieri D'Amati).

    Presented at: Royal Economics Society annual conference, University of Belfast, 2024; Text-as-Data in Economics workshop (poster session), University of Liverpool, 2024; PhD Conference in Economics, University of Tor Vergata, 2024; Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning, and Natural Language Processing for Macroeconomics, Bank of Italy, November 2024.

  • The Role of Labour Markets in Household Inflation Expectations (with Christine Braun and Anshumaan Tuteja).

Publications

  1. Grubb et al. 2021, Induced innovation in energy technologies and systems: a review of evidence and potential implications for CO2 mitigation, Environmental Research Letters 16.4

Discussion Papers

  1. Curzon-Price et al. 2020, The GFC, Systemic Legitimacy and “Rip-Off” Stories in the Daily Mail, Rebuilding Macroeconomics Discussion Paper

Conferences Attended

2024: Royal Economics Society (University of Belfast); Scottish Economics Society (University of Glasgow).

2023: Oxford-Warwick macroeconomics workshop (University of Oxford).