Ongoing Research

  • The Effects of Information Gaps in Central Bank Communications (Job Market Paper).

    Information gaps about the likely path of future interest rates between the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and public speeches by the Chair and Vice Chair account for fluctuations in bond markets and the macroeconomy. I estimate a relationship between the text of public speeches and the high-frequency change in market expectations of interest rates. I then use this relationship to measure the differential information about the likely path of future interest rates between private FOMC meeting minutes and public speeches, which I call an information gap. In an event study, I show that these information gaps account for 11% of the variation in surprises in financial market expectations of future interest rates, which has a persistent effect along the yield curve. Using a structural vector autoregression identified with external instruments, I find that information gap surprises have persistent macroeconomic effects. I explain my results through a model in which the central bank inaccurately communicates its superior knowledge of its reaction function and the real interest rate.

  • Embracing the Future: Tense Patterns and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy (with Andrea Guerrieri D'Amati).

    Presented at: Royal Economics Society annual conference, University of Belfast, 2024; Text-as-Data in Economics workshop (poster session), University of Liverpool, 2024; PhD Conference in Economics, University of Tor Vergata, 2024; Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning, and Natural Language Processing for Macroeconomics, Bank of Italy, November 2024.

  • The Role of Labour Markets in Household Inflation Expectations (with Christine Braun and Anshumaan Tuteja).

Publications

  1. Grubb et al. 2021, Induced innovation in energy technologies and systems: a review of evidence and potential implications for CO2 mitigation, Environmental Research Letters 16.4

Discussion Papers

  1. Curzon-Price et al. 2020, The GFC, Systemic Legitimacy and “Rip-Off” Stories in the Daily Mail, Rebuilding Macroeconomics Discussion Paper

Conferences

2024: Royal Economics Society (University of Belfast); Scottish Economics Society (University of Glasgow).

2023: Oxford-Warwick Macro-International workshop (University of Oxford).